Leave it to Fast Company experts to find number one predictor of success

Fast Company has an FC Expert Blog. I do not know who these experts or what their qualifications are. They really are experts in declaring broad predictions, especially from reading few lines of some old academic paper. One of the experts write in their blog (the Fast Company says it is not responsible for their wisdom),

Grit: The Top Predictor of Success

Why do some companies consistently outperform their competition? Why do some people become champions while others fall short? What skills do you need to improve to reach your highest potential?

How ironic that a back-to-basics approach carries the day: It turns out that good old-fashioned grit is the number one indicator of high performance.

The experts, it turns out, did not read the details of the paper they quote. Nor do they seem to understand how predictability is measured in statistical terms and what it means. Needless to say they neglect to speak about omitted variable bias and other experimental errors.

What the paper says is grit, a trait defined by the authors, has an incremental R2 of 4%. That is when you add measure of Grit to whatever linear regression model they were building, the predictability of the model increased by 4%.

4%, just 4% increase after all other variables.

To go from here to “The Top Predictor of Success” is ludicrous.

Not just that, even the authors of the paper list severe limitations. The very definition of Grit is amorphous, it is highly correlated with the Big Five traits (classified in Psychology literature) and in their studies the authors measured it based on self-reporting by test participants.

From a study with such severe limitations (I am surprised it was even published), we get sage advice from Fast Company experts,

It doesn’t matter if you’re rich or poor, come from a good neighborhood, have a fancy-pants degree, or are good looking. We all have nearly limitless potential, and the opportunity to seize it is waiting for you.

Let old-school grit and determination serve as the catalyst to achieving your own personal greatness.  You don’t need another tech gadget; just the same killer app that has been foundation of success since the beginning of civilization.

The expert has filtered out gaping holes in the original study, ignored effect of lurking variables,  generalized a self-reported measurement of students to the entire population and urges us to show grit.

I grit my teeth!

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