This is by far the best quote on the fallacy of confusing correlation with causation. This comes from my daughter’s second favorite author Lemony Snicket (Daniel Handler)
If you work hard, and become successful, it does not necessarily mean you are successful because you worked hard, just as if you are tall with long hair it doesn’t mean you would be a midget if you were bald.
This quote, in my mind, displaces the previous best quote by my favorite economics author Greg Mankiw (not my favorite economist however)
Suppose we were to graph average SAT scores by the number of bathrooms a student has in his or her family home. That curve would also likely slope upward. (After all, people with more money buy larger homes with more bathrooms.) But it would be a mistake to conclude that installing an extra toilet raises yours kids’ SAT scores.
Now back to reading, “What can we learn from …” articles I have Instapaper-ed
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I think you’ll enjoy this Michael Lewis address on the role of luck in success.
http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S33/87/54K53/
That is a very good read. Thanks for the ink Noah.
Accounting for random events in one’s success does not come easily.