Freemium has not disrupted Segmentation

Is that enough buzzwords packed into single title? I bet I do not have to explain what is freemium or what is disruption, two of most overused words these days. Segmentation however is not new, in fact a very old concept, and yet it is not as popular and needs explanation.

Segmentation: I am not talking demographics based indirect segmentationhere but the right way of segmenting based on customer needs (or needs based segmentation). You are grouping together customers based on the similar jobs they are trying to get done. (see here and here for more details)

When you identify customer segment and the common job to be done, understand the alternatives, surface their willingness to pay for the job, and map the budget from which those customers will pay for that job, you have marketing and product strategy.

Four years ago, when Om Malik of GigaOm wrote, “How freemium can work for your business”, I called out the cognitives biases in looking only at successful businesses.

Two years ago I wrote Freemium has run its course in GigaOm (I am surprised he let me write after my Biases articles).

Fast forward to present day and let us look at one of the poster boys for the freemium model, Dropbox. We have seen numbers on how Dropbox can be profitable with just  3% of the user base converting to paying customers. Small percentage of a very large number is still a large number is the thinking.

Om Malik recently did a fantastic research report on their business and growth. In his report he found,

(Dropbox), according to sources close to the company, is rumored to be valued at more than $4 billion and is on its way to a billion dollars in revenue. It has about 200 million accounts and about 4 million of those are businesses.

The numbers speak loud and clear where their success is coming from -segmentation. While both consumers and businesses may have the same job to be done (easily sharing information in a safe and secure way) one segment values it more and has almost no alternatives compared to the other segment. And it also has a budge to pay for it.

dropbox-pricing

If we assumed businesses chose only the Pro edition at $99 a  year with just two users (over the business edition at minimum of $795/year) that comes to 5 million business customers. If we take 4 million number from Om Malik’s report that would imply businesses with average number of users of 2.5 (generating $250 a year).

In other words, we can explain almost all of Dropbox’s $1 billion a year revenue from its business customers – those with a job to be done that is hard to be filled by alternatives and have a budget to pay for the job.  You and I, consumers, do not have a budget we set aside for such services.

If they were to increase the average number of users per business to 4,  even with no change in 4 million number, their run rate will jump to, $1.6 billion. If they were to target businesses with more than 5 users (and there are many if you look at US Census site), their revenue rate will rise very quickly to $5 and $8 billion.

That is Dropbox’s $1 billion run rate and its valuation are supported not by its freemium but by its segmentation strategy. Freemium may have captured everyone’s attention but it is segmentation strategy that is driving Dropbox’s success.

 

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