Follow up on number of nooks sold

[tweetmeme source=”pricingright”] Last November I made a claim on how many nooks Barnes and Noble might have sold before they ran out of them. The claim was based on an analysis of accruals in their quarterly balance sheet. My numbers were 200 to 400 thousand nooks sold. B&N announced earnings today but as expected they decided not to disclose number of nooks sold.  Here is another attempt to validate my previous claim and project the number of nooks sold.

  1. B&N did not have nooks in stores until recently and since most of the sales happened during holidays, let us assume all nook sales happened over their BarnesAndNoble.com website.
  2. Their online sales growth from Nov-Quarter to Jan-Quarter for FY10 has nook and non-nook components. Let us assume the non-nook revenue growth rate is same for this year as previous year  Q2 to Q3.

Here are the BN.com (online channel) revenue numbers (their FY09 dates were different for Jan quarter), all numbers sourced from their press releases.

Nov-Quarter Jan-Quarter
FY09 $109 MM $157 MM
FY10 $120 MM $210 MM (with nook)

If we assumed that the 44% growth we saw in FY09 repeated in FY10, that comes to $172 MM leaving $37.2 MM from nook.
At $259 a nook, that comes to 143,000 nooks sold – much lower than my previous claim of 200K-400K numbers for just the November month.

The revised estimate is between 60,000 nooks that Techcrunch said based on its sources in Taiwan and 200,000 units (accounting for store sales and using the lower bound of my previous prediction).

4 thoughts on “Follow up on number of nooks sold

  1. Hi
    You are correct, the new model is only as good as its assumptions. I took the conservative numbers and the range still is below the 200K numbers I said last time.
    Thanks for reading.
    -rags

    Like

  2. Hi,
    I am no expert but just one or more thought.
    You have assumed the same growth for non nook sales. I feel it should be lower. The recent article in economist mentions that in 2009 e book sales has increased to $ 350 Mn from $ 110 Mn in 2008. People prefer ebooks. With Kindle and sony reader in market, do you think B & N has same growth for non nook sale!. Also the book industry shows decrease in revenue over last year.
    Lowering the growth will increase the nook revenue. However, it will not make huge difference. It will certainly not be in range of 200 – 250.

    Like

Comments are closed.