Given data on prevalance of links in Retweets, can you tell the chances of a tweet with link will be Retweeted?

There are many articles on what increases your Tweet’s chances of getting Retweeted.

There is one article I saw that found that

  1. Among the tweets that were Retweeted, 56.7% had a link in them
  2. Among the tweets that were not Retweeted, 19% had a link in them

Given this data, can you tell the chances of your Tweet with link getting Retweeted?

State your confidential answer here and see the solution to the problem.

Note 1: I am not attesting to the validity of this data nor am I supporting any other claims made in the rest of the article.

Note 2: Keep in mind fallacy of composition – what is true of a part cannot be treated as true of the whole. As Sowell nicely put it, “If one person stands up in a stadium, she can see better than others. But if everyone stands up …”

Note3: The Fast Company article that gave us this data says in its title, “scientifically proven ways to get retweeted”. I do not get it. They did not start with a hypothesis, did not do controlled experiment, and are not looking for evidence that would falsify their claims. How can this is be scientifically proven?

6 thoughts on “Given data on prevalance of links in Retweets, can you tell the chances of a tweet with link will be Retweeted?

  1. Very nice article and very interesting. Reminds us that we must use caution when we see stats thrown around and do the analysis necessary to get to the root of the details.

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  2. Pete
    This is awesome. You have built a spreadsheet that is generic enough to do all Bayesian probability estimates. Next time we see a % metric bandied about we simply need to plug in the value in this.

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  3. Great article and analysis. Was so glad you asked these questions. I took the challenge and derived my answer using a spreadsheet and was happy to see I got it right. It was a really useful exercise I felt because now I have a much better understanding of the dynamics. Also your remarks on science I think are useful to the average person who is science illiterate.

    Gratefully,
    Pete

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