About eighteen months ago we were treated to some dire predictions about an enterprise software company,
Any single one of the reasons wouldn’t have been enough to turn the tide, but taken together, it’s a watershed moment for enterprise software.
Because enterprise adopt technology so much slower than consumers, I’m increasingly convinced we are at the cusp of something that only comes around once every a decade or two.
Here is what I wrote then about these predictions,
They back it up with scant evidence which is mostly selectively chosen to support their preconceived notion. Or these evidences are anecdotal or manufactured based on their own biased reading of the market. They fail to seek any evidence to the contrary or refuse to ask questions on what evidence will disprove their theory.
On top of this poor evidence seeking behavior we see even poorer analysis. All set up to support their foregone conclusion.
If the analysis is flawed or if the analysis is just a figment of one’s imagination, if you and I cannot reproduce the same results with the data set (in this case there is no data set) we have to reject the conclusion regardless of how plausible it sounds or how popular the blogger is.
Since then Oracle has strengthened its market cap to $148 billion, saw its revenue increase from $35 billion to $37 billion with 11% increase in net income. And in terms of handling disruptions, they struck a mega deal with the disruptor Salesforce.com.
Once again I am not going to ding the blogger for getting it wrong but call out her flawed method or lack of any method in writing about businesses and their strategies.
It is one thing if she had done scenario analysis and told us a probabilistic prediction that Oracle is doomed but it is another to just make up things.