A Frequentist and a Bayesian Frequent a Bar

A Frequentist and a Bayesian have been going to this bar for the past five evenings. The bar is a special kind that offers only two kinds of beers – one is Amber and the other is Dark.

The first evening the Frequentist orders Amber and the Bayesian orders Dark.

The second evening the Frequentist orders Amber and the Bayesian orders Dark.

The third evening the Frequentist orders Amber and the Bayesian orders Dark.

The fourth evening the Frequentist orders Amber and the Bayesian orders Dark.

The fifth evening the Frequentist orders Amber and the Bayesian orders Dark.

This is sixth evening.

What are the chances the Frequentist will order Amber?

What are the chances the Bayesian will order Dark?

Your answer will tell you whether you are a Frequentist or Bayesian. A mindless dashboard driven manager or a hypothesis setting, data seeking, and dynamic decision maker.

Life is a series of probabilities – our job as decision makers is to seek relevant data to reduce the uncertainties.

For extra credit, what are the chances one of the two will be run over by bus or the bar shuts down due to numerous reasons? (Black Swan)

2 thoughts on “A Frequentist and a Bayesian Frequent a Bar”

1. Keith says:

Then the human element strikes, they are both sick of ale and go to the local wine bar and share a bottle of Central Otago Pinot something.

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2. Love it Rags. Tell me if I’m right on this.

A Frequentist looks at the 5 nights of Frequentist:Amber and Bayesian:Dark, and confidently predict Night 6 to be the same. Like, with 100% certainty.

A Bayesian would start with, say, 50/50 probability that the Frequentist orders and Amber, and separately that the Bayesian orders a Dark. The 5 nights of ordering would each then influence the model, to where the probability of Night 6 order would be, hypothetically, 85% Frequentist:Amber and 85% Bayesian:Dark. The actual probability isn’t the point, more to show the Bayesian mentality here.

Hutch

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