A Frequentist and a Bayesian Frequent a Bar

A Frequentist and a Bayesian have been going to this bar for the past five evenings. The bar is a special kind that offers only two kinds of beers – one is Amber and the other is Dark. The first evening the Frequentist orders Amber and the Bayesian orders Dark. The second evening the Frequentist orders … Continue reading A Frequentist and a Bayesian Frequent a Bar

Because I am all about the base rate

Tis the season for predictions. If one has an audience one seem compelled to make predictions.  You are better off reading the book Superforecasting than this article. The book explains in depth the simplest elements you need in making predictions and forecast. It starts with – Base Rate – which is how frequent does the said event … Continue reading Because I am all about the base rate

90% Chance Your Prediction is Wrong

We all make predictions everyday, pundits and media bloggers more so than the rest of us. Business folks in startups and enterprises are no exceptions – we predict the market size, our share of the market, revenue growth, effect of a marketing campaign etc. These predictions drive our decisions to launch a product, enter a … Continue reading 90% Chance Your Prediction is Wrong

How entrepreneurs estimate the probability of picking a red ball from a urn?

Stay with me on this till the end of this article. Suppose you asked me the probability of picking a red ball from a urn that has 10 red balls and 10 green balls, I would say the answer is 1/2. I cannot say with certainty what the next pick will be but if you … Continue reading How entrepreneurs estimate the probability of picking a red ball from a urn?