I wrote this in 2010 in Posterous blog I had. Since then Posterous has gone down but I want to make sure the record of my predictions are available for you all to see. Here they are from July 2010
Five years from now:
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Despite practicing the current entrepreneurial methods like Lean Startup, Customer Development, Pivot, MVP etc the success rate for start-ups will not budge from its current 10-15% level.
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The very ideas listed above will cease to be current and will be replaced by new names that have the same meaning.
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With these new ideas, new messiahs will emerge basing their advice on revelations of different kind.
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The search for “N things to improve”, “m signs of successul ventures” etc. will continue.
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MBAs will continued to be blamed for many venture failures.